2014 Re-Draft – Running Backs

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Updated: March 8, 2014

2014 Re-Draft – Running Backs

Out With the Old & In With the New

By Rick Briggs, Asylum Fantasy Sports

There’s one mistake many re-draft owners make: Owners tend to draft the same faces or keep them in keeper leagues year after year because they had some success. There’s an influx of new, young talent coming into the league every year. Some will be duds, but some will become the superstars of tomorrow. The late bloomers sometimes come up and surprise owners after a slow start to their careers, but there are the players who show what it takes in their rookie years. As a successful owner, you have to adapt and learn to recognize the talent and pull the trigger on a young player even when your heart tells you Ahmad Bradshaw has another great year in him.

Some of you out there are saying, “Rick, why are you telling us the obvious?” Because what is obvious to some is still part of the mystery of great drafting to rookie owners, novices or somebody who drafts with his heart instead of his brain and gut feeling. Going into 2014 I’ve compiled some tidbits for these owners to clean out some dead wood and start building for a winner.

Out With The Old

Steven Jackson – 2,552 carries and 10,678 yards, not to mention 440 receptions too, Steven Jackson will be 31 by the time camp starts. Eight straight years of over 1,000 is great, but he has averaged 282 carries per season during those great years. He is one of the greats, but his mileage is high and his role is uncertain in Atlanta. Value: Mid RB 3.
Maurice Jones-Drew – Here’s a guy who is tough as nails on a bad team. He will be 29 this year and 2009 through 2011 seemed to take its toll on him. He may be out of Jacksonville in 2014, so watch what happens. Suffering a Lis franc fracture in 2012 did not help his body at all, and 2013 was very pedestrian albeit he did come alive somewhat towards the end of the season. He has more upside than Jackson, but he shouldn’t be the sought after commodity he once was. Value: low end RB 2.
Frank Gore – Here is another running back who will be 31 when camp starts. Granted, some experts have been writing Gore off prematurely and he has proven them wrong, but the clock waits on no one. Gore has 7 seasons over 1,000 yards. He has averaged 243 carries per year in his career. Most alarming in fantasy is his receptions have dropped off dramatically in the three years Jim Harbaugh has been head coach. He hasn’t had the heaviest work load in his career, but he has taken some pounding. Do not be afraid to draft Gore, but be cognoscente of his real value. Value: Low to Mid RB 2.
Chris Johnson – Even though he is turning 29, CJ has only played 6 seasons. If Tennessee keeps him, I would not be expecting a huge year. He loses goal line carries to Shonn Greene and as long as he is around healthy, that will be the case. Johnson’s speed burst seems to have diminished somewhat as well. He has been single digit TDs for three straight years and that will continue. If though, the Titans choose to part ways with him, monitor where he lands. A change of scenery could be what the doctor ordered. He has some gas in his tank, but he needs a good line to tap dance behind before finding the hole. Value: High end RB 2.

In With The New

Eddie Lacy – At 5’11” 230 pounds, Lacy is a big, tough runner with speed. Remember; Rodgers was hurt most of the regular season. He posted 1,178 yards on 284 carries with 11 TDs. On top of that, he hauled in 35 catches for 257 yards. All this for a rookie who only played 80% of his team’s snaps in 25% of the games. That means his workload will increase in 2014. His new Running Backs Coach Sam Gash, said Lacy reminds him in some aspects of Curtis Martin who Gash blocked for as fullback. Lacy is on a potent offense and is definitely first round material. Value: Mid to High RB 1.
Giovani Bernard – The Bengals are already telling us that Bernard is in line for 300 touches in 2014. What does that mean? The Law firm is definitely regulated to back up, and the offense will be looking to Bernard for more production. Coming off a rookie campaign that accounted for 170 carries plus 56 receptions, Bernard compiled 1,209 yards from scrimmage and 8 Touchdowns. Considering the Bengals had 481 rushing attempts last year, the defending AFC North champs will be fielding a first rate run game again. The difference will be that Bernard is now the focal point. His expanding role is great news for fantasy owners, so don’t let Gio slip away. Value: Low to Mid RB 1.
Le’Veon Bell – Another big back, Bell has agility too. His 3.5 YPC last year was low, but Pittsburgh’s offensive line has young talent and finally started to gel late last year. Bell can run and catch, and Haley really does like to use his running backs. The Steelers are on the brink of scoring a ton of points this year and Bell figures to be a big part of it. Value: High RB2 to Low end RB 1.
Zac Stacy – The Rams have found their replacement for Steven Jackson. The Darryl Richardson experiment is over and all signs point to a heavier load for Mr. Stacy. The only negative is St. Louis plays three of the NFL’s toughest defenses twice, but the Rams are stocking up draft picks and talent in the tough NFC West. Stacy is poised to lead the offense. Bradford has not translated into the franchise Quarterback they hoped for, but now with the solid run game back, it will take some pressure off him as well. Look for a big year for Zac Stacy. Value: Mid RB 1.
Andre Ellington – He may not be as impactful as the previous four backs, but Ellington will be the guy in Arizona. He has put on ten pounds of muscle in the off-season which should help considerably. Mendenhall is done and Stepfan Taylor will be the complimentary back to Ellington’s quickness. Ellington was not used consistently last year, but averaged 5.5 YPC. Palmer has the Cardinals moving the ball through the air now, so eight in the box is not an option to stop the Cards. He is on the small size, but properly utilized, Ellington should be a great value in your upcoming draft. Value: Mid to High end RB 2.

So there’s a little food for thought going into 2014. Another word of advice is don’t throw out Ray Rice yet, but keep your eyes on him through training camp. I have a feeling his decline could be rapid. Monitor CJ Spiller. Why? Sooner or later Fred Jackson will be gone and Spiller could be dynamic. When? I don’t know, but I’m not investing much in him yet. Adrian Peterson could start showing signs of breakdown too, but since he’s a freak of nature, I still have him in my top 3.