2015 Most Over Rated Fantasy Players

By Rick Briggs, Asylum Fantasy Sports

Just as the under-rated players are so often forgotten in the melee before fantasy drafts, so it is the opposite with the over-rated players. Not forgotten; but over-hyped to the point that you think you are drafting the second comings of Jim Brown or LT with some of your picks. These players can sink your fantasy season as quickly as a screen door in a submarine. Here are my top 10 over rated players going into 2015.

1. Mike Evans – Look, I like Mike Evans a LOT, but going where he is going in current ADPs is not what I’m willing to pay for him. Currently he is going 3.03. Evans is ahead of such wide receivers as Emmanuel Sanders, Kelvin Benjamin, Brandon Marshall, DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson. I know many owners are looking at the twelve touchdowns Evans had last year, but especially in PPR formats, he was what I consider a red flag. Evans had fewer receptions (65) than all of the previously mentioned receivers. “What does that mean, Rick? He had more touchdowns,” you ask? Yes , but a dip of three touchdowns for Evans and an increase of 2 or 3 touchdowns for say a Kelvin Benjamin, can mean all the difference. Let’s not forget Tampa has a rookie quarterback as well. Temper your expectations for Evans.
2. Jonathan Stewart – I do not believe Jonathan Stewart is going to be a #1 running back; period. He may start the year as a starter for Carolina, but consider Stewart has missed 20 games in the last three seasons, and he has not had over 180 carries in the last five seasons. Blame DeAngelo Williams all you want, but this guy can’t carry the load, and face facts: He never was as good as all the hype told you. Going early in the fifth round in current ADPs, I’m telling you now not to waste the pick. I look for Cameron Artis-Payne to be playing by Week 7. Take Gio Bernard or Joique Bell instead.
3. Julius Thomas – These over rated designations do not mean I think certain players are lacking, but it is because I want to warn the average player about over-drafting them. Thomas is one I think you could gamble on; but in my mind, his move to Jacksonville has dropped him from a top five tight end to a lower tier one. Current ADPs have Thomas ahead of Antonio Gates, Owen Daniels (his replacement in Denver) and Delaney Walker. I don’t think it is a new lease on life for Thomas in Jacksonville. I think he will go from a great fantasy tight end to just a decent one.
4. Joseph Randle – Currently going at 4.09, Randle to me, is a gambler’s dream. I don’t think he will pay the huge dividend, but the potential is there. If (a mighty big IF)Darren McFadden stays healthy; Randle’s opportunities dwindle. Even if (or when) DMAC gets injured, there is still Lance Dunbar. Dallas can afford to spread it around, because none of these guys are DeMarco Murray. At 4.09, he is still at the lower portions of running backs. Unless you have two studs and want to gamble on potential, take safer picks such as Gio Bernard or Andre Ellington. Better yet, if you are gambling, go for TJ Yeldon or Todd Gurley!
5. Jimmy Graham – Jimmy Graham is not one I want to put on here. Some of my colleagues are still red hot on this guy, and others have said his production is doomed. I throw out this caution because he is still the second highest drafted Tight End, behind only Rob Gronkowski. Just remember that Graham is in a new offense on a new team. This team is and has been built around ‘Beast Mode’ style play on both sides of the ball. Graham will be called upon to block more; a feat he has yet to embrace, and he must face the fact that his targets will dip in 2015. On a positive note, he is still a beast in his own right and Russell Wilson should love having him in the mix; especially around the end zone after last years’ Super Bowl ending. Go for Graham, but don’t over-pay. There will still be a Greg Olsen, Martellus Bennett, Antonio Gates or Delaney Walker out there if you are not sure.
6. CJ Spiller – It is no secret that I have never believed in the CJ Spiller hype. But that aside, drafting Spiller at 4.02 (Current ADPs) is not sound fantasy drafting. Mark Ingram produced at a very high level for New Orleans last year, and Spiller’s propensity to injury is something I want to avoid. He’s an asset to New Orleans, but not to your fantasy squad at 4.02. Take guaranteed starters like Alfred Morris, Carlos Hyde, Andre Ellington or Latavius Murray instead.
7. DeSean Jackson – Much of the luster has faded from the name DeSean Jackson, but current ADPs have him going at 6.02. While this is not a position where you are drafting him as your WR1 or even WR2, he is still ahead of such players as Vincent Jackson, Allen Robinson (a guy who almost made my Top 10 UNDER rated players), Roddy White and Victor Cruz. Washington is bad, and if you do not get the long bomb for a touchdown to Jackson, his stats are very vanilla. Jackson has been known to quit on a team too, so if things continue down the same road in Washington in 2015, look for DJAX on the end of the bench staring off into space again.
8. Keenan Allen – What you want in the middle rounds is either consistency or that huge upside you are willing to gamble on. Keenan Allen has the potential, but San Diego’s offense often times sputters. Consider in 2014, Allen had four games with eight or more receptions, but only two of them were over 100 yards. He also had six games with four or fewer receptions. Not only did he have ten games less than 65 yards, six of those were less than 40 yards as well. While Allen is sitting at a modest 4.12, I would not pull the trigger there when I could get a Brandon Marshall, Jarvis Landry or Sammy Watkins. If I saw Allen in the sixth, then I would take him.
9. Tevin Coleman – OK, I’m pushing a little here, but do you want to tap into that Atlanta backfield in the sixth round? That’s where Tevin Coleman is right now and unless you have drafted two Running Back studs already, don’t gamble on him as your RB2 or flex. He’s a good player and there’s room for him to take over in Atlanta, but will he start immediately? I don’t think so this year. Temper expectations, and don’t over-pay for Coleman. If he is at the end of the seventh or in the eighth, take him! If not, then pick up a Bishop Sankey, Isiah Crowell or Chris Ivory instead.
10. Peyton Manning – This future Hall of Famer is winding down a brilliant career. Look, Manning will still be a very potent fantasy quarterback in 2015, but the reason he is on this list is because people sometimes have blinders on when drafting “old reliables” such as Peyton. Manning was still the third leading scoring quarterback last year, but the gap is closing. The cold always has bothered him, but playing in Denver has taken its toll. His last five games last year starting on November 30, he mustered only 234 passing yards per game and his touchdowns and interceptions were 5 and 6 respectively. Considering he is currently going at 4.06, you can wait up to three rounds and still get Big Ben, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo or Cam Newton. I would highly recommend waiting and load up on solid receivers or running backs, then grab a quarterback who will give you comparable numbers.

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